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Tropical Cyclone Haley

Tropical Cyclone Haley was forming quickly as NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image of the storm in the South Pacific Ocean. On Feb. 9 at 2020 UTC (3:20 p.m. EST) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible image of System 93P (known in Fiji as 14F). The MODIS image showed a circular center of circulation with banding features, two things that indicated that the low pressure area was quickly organizing. The next day, the low became Tropical Storm Haley. Tropical Cyclone Haley formed on Feb. 10 at 0300 UTC, about 325 nautical miles (374 miles 602 km) south-southwest of Bora Bora, Society Islands, French Polynesia, in the open waters of the South Pacific Ocean. Maximum sustained winds strengthened quickly to 45 knots (51.7 mph/83.3 kph). Soon after Haley intensified, infrared satellite imagery indicated that convection (rising air that forms thunderstorms that make up the storm) were already weakening around the center. On Feb. 11 at 0300 UTC, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued its final advisory on Tropical Cyclone Haley. At that time, Haley's center was located near 24.8 south latitude and 150.0 west longitude, about 500 nautical miles (575.4 miles/926 km) southeast of Bora Bora, Society Islands. Haley was moving to the southeast at 11 knots (12.6 mph/20.3 kph). As a result of wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures, Haley's maximum sustained winds had already dropped to 35 knots (40.2 mph/64.8 kph). The forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center expect Haley to continue moving southeast as wind shear increases and sea surface temperatures become even cooler. Both of those factors are expected to dissipate Haley by Tuesday, Feb. 12.

NASA Sees Tropical Cyclone 15S Form in So. Indian Ocean

The fifteenth tropical cyclone of the Southern Indian Ocean season strengthened into a tropical storm today, Feb. 11, and NASA's Aqua satellite passed overhead hours after it reached tropical storm strength. Tropical Cyclone 15S was born from the low pressure area designated as System 92S. System 92S developed on Feb. 9 and intensified into a tropical storm on Feb. 11 at 0300 UTC. At that time, Tropical Cyclone 15S had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40.2 mph/64.8 kph), making it a tropical storm. It was centered near 12.1 south latitude and 82.5 east longitude, about 650 nautical miles (748 miles/1204 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Tropical Cyclone 15S is far from any land areas and is expected to strengthen and dissipate over open ocean. On Feb. 11 at 0805 UTC the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Cyclone 15S in the Southern Indian Ocean. The image showed that the center of the storm had continued consolidating and was obscured by central dense overcast. Imagery from the special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) instrument, a seven-channel, four-frequency passive microwave radiometer system aboard the DMSP satellite showed bands of strong thunderstorms were wrapping into the storm's well-defined center of circulation, an indication that the storm is strengthening. Tropical Cyclone 15S was moving to the west-southwest at 10 knots (11.5 mph/18.5 kph). The tropical storm is forecast to move to the southwest, then turn south and strengthen to hurricane force within the next two days. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects that wind shear and cooler waters will weaken the storm after that time.

NASA Sees Cyclone Gino Wind Up to Wind Down Later

NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Cyclone Gino as the storm continues to wind up in the southern Indian Ocean, consolidating and strengthening. Infrared data shows the storm has strengthened but it is headed for cooler waters which will weaken it in coming days. On Feb. 12 at 0841 UTC, NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument that flies aboard the Aqua satellite captured infrared imagery of Cyclone Gino that showed the storm developed a large area of very cold, high cloud top temperatures around its center indicating powerful thunderstorms. Cloud top temperatures were as cold as -63 Fahrenheit (-52 Celsius) indicating strong storms that have the capability to produce heavy rainfall. The AIRS imagery also suggests a ragged eye had formed. On Feb. 12 at 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST), Cyclone Gino's maximum sustained winds had increased to 75 knots (86.3 mph/138.9 kph) making the storm a category one hurricane. Gino was centered near 17.1 south latitude and 79.5 east longitude, about 700 nautical miles (805.5 miles/1,296 km) southeast of Diego Garcia. Gino has been moving to the south-southwest at 10 knots (11.5 mph/18.5 kph), around the northwestern edge of a subtropical ridge (elongated area) of high pressure. AIRS data shows that the sea surface temperatures around Gino are currently favorable for further development because they're around a warm 28 degrees Celsius (82.4 Fahrenheit). However, as Gino moves further south-southwest, those sea surface temperatures will drop, making it more difficult for the tropical cyclone to maintain intensity.In addition, wind shear is expected to increase over the next three days as Gino moves further south. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Gino to transition to a cold core low pressure area by Feb. 15.

Měsíční výhled počasí pro ČR na období od 11. února do 10. března 2013

Průměrný úhrn srážek v ČR v tomto období: 33,5 mm
a interval průměrných srážek je od 25,1 mm do 37,3 mm
Průměrná teplota v ČR v tomto období: +0,2 °C
a interval průměrných teplot je od -1,1 °C do +1,1 °C.
Srážkové a teplotní rekordy v ČR pro toto období od roku 1934:
Nejméně srážek v roce 2003 (8,4 mm), nejvíce srážek v roce 1937 (93,0 mm)
Nejchladněji v roce 1956 (-6,8 °C), nejtepleji v roce 1998 (+6,1 °C)
Pozn.: Průměrné hodnoty jsou vypočítány pro celé území ČR do nadmořské výšky přibližně 600 m n.m. za období od roku 1961 do roku 2000. Úspěšnost předpovědí teplotních charakteristik je kolem 75% a úspěšnost předpovědí srážkových charakteristik kolem 70%.
Období jako celek očekáváme teplotně průměrné, srážkově průměrné.
I. Dekáda 11.2.-20.2.:
Bude zataženo až oblačno, občas sněžení, zejména v první polovině období.

II. Dekáda 21.2.-28.2.:
Zpočátku očekáváme polojasno až oblačno, místy občasný déšť, na horách srážky smíšené nebo sněhové. Postupně během dekády přibývání oblačnosti i srážek. Nejnižší noční teploty +3 až -3 °C, zpočátku při zmenšené oblačnosti kolem -8 °C. Nejvyšší denní teploty 4 až 10 °C, ke konci období 1 až 7 °C.

III. Dekáda 1.3.-10.3.:
Během dekády by měla převládat velká oblačnost, občasný déšť nebo déšť se sněhem, na horách srážky většinou sněhové. Nejnižší noční teploty +2 až -4 °C. Nejvyšší denní teploty 3 až 9 °C.



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