Provider‘s code

MSM

RP identification code

6215648905   

Research plan title

Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of controlled ecosystems and their adaptability to climate change

Applicant

Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno

Administrator

Faculty of Agronomy

Investigator

Ass. Prof. Zdeněk Žalud, Ph.D.

The presented research program deals with a multidisciplinary research of managed ecosystems and is oriented to biological and technological aspects of their sustainable use. The project should contribute to the optimization of the use of these ecosystems in such a way that their productive capacity will be preserved, and kept in a mutual harmony with all other functions which these systems provide. Its focus, structure and goals justify the preference of an anthropocentric approach to ecosystems, which uses for their individual functions the term services. Regarding the fact that biological and physical framework, in which these ecosystems function, is not static but significantly modified by the current of global climatic change as well as other factors, it is necessary to consider and carry out the research of those adaptive measures that assure the sustainability of ecosystems in the course of these changes. The research team is convinced that the use of the Czech territory, which is based mostly on controlled ecosystems, would support research that is very desirable, especially if we want to minimize existing environmental risks and to assure a long-term multifunctionality of the landscape. The research project corresponds with the current concepts of change in European agriculture, which assumes a gradual reduction of energy inputs and emphasizes those functions that concern landscape, soil protection and water management as well as the establishment of a harmony between these functions on the one hand and the productive function of the landscape on the other.

The core of the research is represented for managed agricultural ecosystems, arable land, grassland, water resources and energy-producing woody species and is the basis of all current research activities of the Faculty of Agronomy, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry in Brno. In the Czech Republic, these ecosystems cover altogether 54% of the total territory. The extent of provided services will be evaluated in all four ecosystems and the research team will try to define parameters enabling their quantification; these indicators will be used also when evaluating their sustainability. The indicators will be divided into three groups – (i) general (applicable in all ecosystems), (ii) specific (respecting differences existing among selected ecosystems) and (iii) climatic (selected for the research of adaptive measures resulting from climatic changes). The selection of suitable indicators and their optimization will be the first general objective and will involve all the results of analytical studies on physical, chemical and biological processes taking place in ecosystems under the study.

The second objective of the research project is to evaluate the individual ecosystem services that are provided by managed ecosystems or could be provided under current and expected climatic conditions. In our case, this means above all creating a harmony and sustainability of their productivity, regulatory, cultural and supporting functions.

Knowledge of internal relationships and functions of ecosystems is an internationally accepted scientific and political priority. Problems concerning sustainability of the development in the landscape or in the managed ecosystems as well as impacts of climatic change represent a multidisciplinary issue and cannot be effectively solved on the level of small research teams and projects of classical character. In this context, it should be mentioned that many studies emphasize an extraordinarily challenging financial, managerial, and experimental requirements to accomplish the research and it is systematic and long-term implementation. On the national level only research projects based on a suitable methodology and provision of both human and material resources can provide a platform for such research activities. These enable a broad collective of researchers to find answers to the extraordinarily complex questions like: ‘What are the optimum ways to create a sustainable landscape?’ and ‘How can the climatic changes influence the character of the landscape?’. The current climatic changes have generated many hypotheses concerning future behaviour of both managed and non-managed ecosystems. In the presented research project, we will try to confirm or deny some of them. For a long time the negative effects of climatic changes on ecosystems are held as one of the most important scientific and research priorities. Another important reason why this research should be implemented is the fact that there is no other complex project that would deal with these problems within the framework of managed ecosystems in the Czech Republic and that we do not know answers to questions mentioned above although they concern of nearly 2/3 of the territory of our country. Another important argument for the implementation of this research is that a successful study, cognition, a necessary correction of links and interrelationships that exist within the framework of ecosystems require a long-term experimentation and the availability of a wide spectrum of evaluated parameters with detailed results with biological and physical analyses. Such an approach is naturally possible only within the framework of relatively long-lasting projects. The presented research project has the character of an applied research, which is a traditional scientific base for all departments of the Faculty of Agriculture. Its solution is a warranty of a further development of the faculty, offers new developmental conceptions and establishes a new, qualitatively higher level in the field of studies on managed ecosystems. Such a conception is fully harmonised with the current long-term orientation of scientific activities at the Faculty of Agriculture, MUAF Brno.

This proposal respects and significantly corresponds with the first theme of „Major Long-term Directions of the Research“ that was accepted by the Government of the Czech Republic under the name “Sustainable Development (Biological and Ecological Aspects of Sustainable Development)” on 1 June 2005

Natural ecosystems that made up the living environment of the human race for a considerable part of its phylogenesis had a very characteristic feature, viz. the capability of self-regulation, which resulted from a complex and complicated network of both positive and negative feedbacks and which were determined by internal limits of each ecosystem. In natural ecosystems such  autonomous regulation represented, to a great extent, that function of mobility of both plant and animal species contributed also to the processes of evolution (Mebratu, 2000). Some 8000 years ago  the human population limit reached 10 mil. (Meadows, 1992) since slow process quickly accelerated the Neolithic „agricultural revolution“, which enabled a steady growth of human population to the number of 800 mil. about 1750. Within this era, the dependence of humans on environmental conditions gradually decreased (Gottlieb, 1996). The industrial revolution that started in England in the second half of the 18^th century replaced the „soft“ natural sources of energy by fossil fuels (at first all by coal) and this change enabled a dramatic increase in productivty and, thus, the human population grew to the present of more than 6 billion (Meadows, 1992). Thanks to industrialisation and a gradual globalisation it was possible to reach an unprecedented welfare in developed countries, however, partly at the expense of the human population that lives in less developed countries of the third world. Simultaneously with this process an absolute majority of natural ecosystems was exposed to an extreme pressure of increasing population density and many of them ended in complete extinction (Brown et al., 1995). In the second half of the 1980s, a reflexion of these facts resulted in efforts to reduce these negative social and ecological consequences of the existing economic development.  These efforts were incorporated  into the Report of the World Commission for the Environment and Development“ (known also as Brundtland‘s Commission). This report for the first time incorporated into the content  the term ‚sustainable development‘ not only environmental but also social aspects and specifically that its authors were aware of the necessity of both socially and ecologically acceptable development represented the main contribution (Robinson, 2004). In spite of the fact that the Brundtland‘s Commission laid the foundations of all subsequent discussions about the sense and objectives of future economic development this report contained also a number of controversial points, for example a requirement that – to satisfy the needs of poor regions  it will be necessary to increase industrial activities 5-10 times during the next century. One of the themes of these discussions was the definition of the term sustainable development itself (Mebratu 1998, Pezzoli 1997 etc.). The essence of the contradiction was the question if it is better to define the sustainable development by means of the so-called 3 pillars (i.e. biologic-physical, social, and economic dimensions) or as a dual relationship between the Man and the Mother Nature (Gibson, 2002).

         The objective of the presented research project is not a new definition of the term of sustainable development or to discuss all its aspects. We are fully aware of the fact that it is not possible to separate its social and economic aspects and in our understanding the term sustainable development means a simultanous fulfilment of three requirements suggested by Robinson and Tinker (1997):

1.              Ecological imperative – the development only within tolerable biological and physical limits of the environmental capacity;

2.              Economic imperative – the development, which assures adequate material conditions for all groups of citizens;

3.              Social imperative – the development, which enables to adopt both principles mentioned above into the context and code of widely acceptable social values.

According to Robinson (2004),  this can be reached only through a decrease in the energy consumption per unit of economic production associated with a simultanous increase in its contributions for the society. If such a developmental trend can be understood and perceived as sustainable will be dependent on concrete political, social, economic, and ecologic interests.

Similarly, sustainable development as an eocnomic activity taking place within certain biological/physical limits, we also perceive the environmental problems as a result of interactions between the biosphere and civilisation (van der Leeuw, 2001). People are dependent on ecosystems (that in this concept involve systems of a managed or intensively tended landscape of  Central Europe) due to the fact that they need the services, which they provide (de Groot, 1992; Daily, 1997). These involve above all of the productive services (i.e. weather regulation, pollination etc.), cultural (i.e. spiritual. recreational and aesthetic values of ecosystems themselves) and, finally, supporting services (e.g. pedological processes, turnover of elements and energy etc.). These services (Fig. 1) not only assure the basic preconditions of life but also influence markedly socio-economic and interpersonal relationships (MEA, 2003). The idea of ecosystemic function and services incorporates the human race into a complex system of mutual relationships within which it is perceived not as superordinated entity but as an integral part of these systems (Palmer et al.,2004, Turner, et al., 2003). The concept of ecosystemic services, as described in the publication Millenium Ecosystems Assessment (MEA, 2003), represents one of a few applicable ways to describe in a complex manner multidimensional relationships between man and the environment without being entrapped in a methilogical mesh of either exagerrated reductionalism or approaches that are too generalized.

The picture today of Central Europe (and the majority of  developed countries) has evolved through a gradual substitution of natural ecosystems by managed ones. These are considerably influenced by and dependent upon the presence of man and have an attenuated function of autonomous regulation. When neglecting human settlements and forests with primarily productive functions, it can be said that agricultural land, water, streams and artificial water reservoirs dominate in managed ecosystems of our countryside. The structure of such systems are much simpler and more uniform than that of natural ones and, as a rule, they are unilaterally oriented toward production. It is important to note that such systems consume much energy and in their essential form, they are only rarely compatible with principles of the sustainable development. At the same time, however, they have certain reserves that (within the framework of optimisation of processes that take place in them, e.g. when using biotechnologies or self-regulation etc.) can contribute to the reversal of some generally negative trends.

Intensive (quantity-oriented) agriculture with its wide use of mineral fertilisers, pesticides and agricultural machinery causing a gradual destabilisation of agroecosystems and environmental pollution is a classical example of a non-sustainable managed system. This was characteristic for the whole territory of the Czech Republic within the period of 1970 – 1990.  During the 1980s, however, people  realised that problems that result from this  use of the landscape cannot be solved individually and ad hoc, but that they require a more comprehensive, integral and sustainable approach to the problem of agricultural production. Several new approaches were suggested, e.g. the system of sustainable (Allen & Van Dusen, 1988; Edwards et al., 1990), integrated (Vereijken & Royle, 1989) and alternative (organic) agriculture (National Research Council of USA, 1989). These approaches and a new comprehension of the role of managed systems (above all agricultural) were gradually incorporated also into a very powerful tool that represents the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union and were excellently formulated in conclusions of the Commission fof Agriculture (EU-Commission, 1997; 2005): „European agriculture as an economic sector must be versatile, sustainable, competitive in all of Europe (including Less Favoured Areas  and mountain regions. It  must be capable of not only to maintaining the character of the countryside, to protect the natural bounty and to contribute to the viability of rural communities but also to satisfy the demand for safe and quality foodstuffs when observing all standards concerning the environmental protection and animal welfare.“ There is no doubt that the current European agriculture is at the start of a new stage of its development and that it also reflects discussions concerning its sustainability. It results from existing analyses that the yields of a number of crops increased by more than 300% within the recent 50 years (Amthor, 1998) and that the substantial part of this increase was partly due to technological innovations and partly due to an increased intensity of production. If the present rate of growth of production were mantained, only 50% of the present area of agricultual land would be necessary for production in EU in 2080 (Rounswell et al., 2005). This, on the one hand, represents a serious socio-economic problem but it is also an extraordinary opportunity for the optimisation of the ratio existing between individual ecosystemic services, the increase in the versatility of the way  the landscape is used,  and the increase in abundance of both plant and animal species on the other.  There is also a possibility to use a part of this released productive capacity for a massive cultivation of energy-containing crops and for an active support of, until now, neglected ecosystemic services. However, the implementation of this vison is dependent on factors of political and economic environment of existing managed systems as well as on an exact defiition of parameters of their biological, physical, economic and social sustainability within the framework of the individual regions. In the Czech Republic, individual aspects of ecosystem sustainability (from co-ordination of research activities themselves) are implemented above all by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Centre for Environmental Problems of Charles University, Czech Ecological Institute, Czech Hydrometeorolgical Institute, Research Institute of Water Management TGM, Minsitry of Health, Ministry of Local Development, Institute for Ecopolitics and others. Problems related to studies on sustainability of ecosystems in the CR are directly linked with European trends and Czech experts participating directly in elaboration of a number of key documents (e.g. MEA). One of the best known publications that contributed to the discussion about the sustainable development was the „Report about the Environmental Situation in the Czech Republic“, which was issued in 1993, which involved a system of environmental indicators (the so-called core set) used in OECD countries. Moldan (1996, 2003) discussed problems associated with the sustainability of managed systems from the viewpoint of envornmental protection and Nátr (1998, 2005) paid attention to aspects concerning food production. The above authors published complex and integrated visions of sustainability of ecosystems and their endangerement resulting from climatic changes. However, it is necessary to mention that only a lesser part of Czech publishing activities is based on results of original research studies performed within the framework of the Czech Republic; this is probably associated with the interdisciplinary character of the concept of sustainable development and relatively high costs which are beyond financial frameworks of common research grants.

Moreover, the complexity of problems related to the sustainability of ecosystems is further amplified by current global climatic changes that surely will change  basic environmental conditons and, thus, also the sustainability of existing systems. Besides, the climatic change itself is a direct consequence of industrial revolution and proof of the neglect of the current approach to the use of natural resources. In principle, this concerns above all exploitation of the productive ecosystemic service at the expense of services of a regulatory nature. The amplification of the greenhouse effect resulting from a dramatic increase in the release of radiation-active gasses (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O and freons) is their major cause (IPCC, 2001). The first consequences of climtic changes were more markedly manifested already in the 1990s (IPCC, 2004). Although in the geological history of our planet there were several changes in the climatic system (including the alternation of glacial and interglacial periods that was typical for the Quarternary), these anthropogenous changes have no analogy within the last 1,200 years (Osborn, Briffa, 2006). An alteration  of relatively stable thermal and precipitational conditions will seriously influence not only all managed ecosystems in the territory of Central Europe but also the remnants of natural ones, because in many cases they are on the fringe of their biological and physical sustainability. Globally, the present level of production will be markedly influenced and the disparity existing between individual regions that will be considerably increased (Parry et al., 2004) and within the framework of individual pedo-climatological regions of Central Europe (Trnka et al. 2004).  It can be expected with a high degree of probability that for instance an earlier occurrence of temperature sums resulting in an acceleration of temperature-dependent phenological development, a marked incrase in the total number of tropical days (i.e. days with the maximum temperature ≥ 30°C), an increase in values of a potential evapotranspiration or a more frequent occurrence of periods of draught will become meteorological limits of an optimum course of production process with a direct impact on yields and quality of crops (Watson et al., 1996; Mearns et al., 1999, Izaurralde et al., 2003). This will lead to a gradient shift of cultivated areas into higher altitudes, pressures on the introducton of new crops and technologies, propagaton of existing, and introduction of new diseases and pests, changes in the activity of soil edaphone, changes in the water regime of soils and in a number of other consequences that altogether will enforce a marked modifications of growing technologies and practices (Adams, et al., 1990, Curtis, et al., 1994, Chakraborty et al., 2000, Harrison, et al.,1995, Bindi, Olesen, 2000, Wegehenkel, 2000, Eitzinger et al., 2003). An increase in temperatures and, especially, a higher probability of the occurrence of waves of hot weather will enforce also changes in animal husbandry. It is also probable that changes in the temperature of surface waters and a more intensive precipitation will disturb the relatinships existing within the framework of managed water ecosystems. As far as the growth of crops is concerned, there is still a problem of compensating the direct effects of an increased concentration of CO₂ (Dhakhwa et al., 1997, Nátr, 2000, Tubiello, Ewert 2002) because it could partly eleminate negative impacts of climatic changes on yields due to a better use of water especially in more arid regions of the Czech Republic. However, the results of some recent experiments cast doubts on the probability of these expectations. Although there is no explicit consensus about the future character of the course of precipitation and the individual models of global circulation are relatively highly different (Dubrovský et al., 2005), it is very probable that some of precipitation will be increased in wimter and, on the contrary, decreased in summer, i.e. in the main growing season.  At the same time it is also possible to expect that the probability of extra intensive rainfalls (with a higher erosion potential) will also increase and that this will be associated with a higher risk of the occurrence of periods of draught (Hayes et al., 2005).

           This basic survey of expected changes and their consequences only indicates the necessity of  detailed studies on the biological and physical framework of sustainable development. we are convinced that a combination of the pressures on sustainability of production with current climatic changes is associated with a necessity of re-evaluation of our existing approaches to the analysis of sustainability of the managed systems. In each of them, it will be necesasry to identify and optimize the provided ecosystemic services, to analyze their vulnerability under the changing climatic conditions and to suggest a set of suitable and sustainable adaptive measures. These measures should leed to a better use of the productive and regulatory ecosystemic services, to a decrease in production of greenhouse gases (for example through the use of free production capacity for cultivation of energy-rich crops and sequestration of carbon dioxide), to an improved resilience of the landscape in the Central Europe to hydrometeorological extremes and to a preservation of and possibly also increase in the abundance and biodiversity of plant and animal species. The main ambition of the presented research project is to carry out an interdisciplinary research in this field and to contribute to an implementation and a practical application of ideas of a sustainable development of agricultural acitivites with a simultaneous alleviation of the impact of expected climatic changes on managed ecosystems that cover more than a half of the territory of the Czech Republic.

Fig. 1: Ecosystemic services and their links with the standard of living (Ministry of Environmental Protection, 2003).

Ecosystemic services are benefits that people can obtain from ecosystems.  They involve a provision of goods, regulatory and cultural services that influence people directly and their supporting services which are indispensable for the maintenance of all other services. Changes in these services influence the standard of living of people through the impact on their safety, basic preconditions of their competence, health, social and cultural relationships. These most important components of this standard  influence the human freedom and possibilities of free choice.

The goal of the proposed research project is to analyze the sustainability of some managed ecosystems with regard to their biological and physical sustainability on the one hand and economic and social sustainability on the other. The analytical part of this study, based on results of our experimental activities, will be used as a base for the proposal and testing of optimisation measures in those fields, in which their functions will be not acceptable. At the same time, we will try to evaluate the adaptability and an overall vulnerability of ecosystems under conditions of climatic changes and a long-term efficiency of current measures leading to the sustainability of managed ecosystems and providing ecosystem services. Although each ecosystem will be evaluated separately, the whole research will be co-ordinated and an analogical methodology will be used in two regions under study (i.e. in the South Moravia and in the region of Českomoravská Highlands). In this way it will be possible to assure compatibility and generalization of outputs on the one hand and a reliable control of the fulfilment of partial tasks in individual ecosystems on the other. The vulnerability of individual managed ecosystems and possibilities of their adaptation under conditions of climatic changes will be solved within the framework of an independent stage of this research project. The main idea is to contribute to the establishment of such a long-term equilibrium among ecosystem services provided by managed ecosystems that would assure the sustainability of these ecosystems and contribute to the quality of ecosystem services also under expected conditions of future decades.

The final goal, which is common for all managed ecosystems, can be reached by means of the application of the following schematic procedure and solving of individual partial goals (PG):

PG 1: Identification of ecosystem services provided (or virtually provided) by the managed ecosystem on a local level

An ecosystem is a dynamic complex of abiotic factors and associations of plants, animals and microorganisms, which create a functional unit on the basis of their mutual relationships. It has limits, which determine interactions of its individual components. In case of a managed ecosystem, the man and his activities, which are usually oriented to a strengthening of ecosystem services, represent one of its basic components. These are defined as benefits that people can obtain from ecosystems and their partial survey and interrelationships are presented in Fig. 1. The professional orientation of the research team its activities will be focused above all on the groups of supporting services, providing services and regulating services. Experimental stations have been established for each managed ecosystem (see Part C1); ecosystem services will be evaluated in all of them (see Tab.1), together with those that are of a virtual nature. The partial goals will be studied on the level of:

1.    functional units of different size (e.g. individual plots, cadastral territories, model and local watersheds and/or farms, regions and in some cases also NUTS2);

2.    units with different climatic conditions (South Moravia vs. Českomoravská Highlands);

3.    systems with different methods of husbandry (e.g. organic vs. intensive);

4.    economic units with different orientation (plant vs. animal production).

From this point of view, the research project has two specific features: complexity and orientation to regional and lower level (in contradistinction to the current EU projects ATEAM or ACCELERATES that were focused to continents, countries and only sporadically also NUTS2). This process will involve groups of stakeholders who are clearly interested in the use and quality of provided ecosystem services (farmers, representatives of Agrarian Chamber, employees of water-managerial institutions, operators of agrotourism etc.) and who also can help to direct research activities closer to factual practical problems. The final portfolio of ecosystem services, which will be studied within the framework of the research project, will be defined by a group of heads of individual research stages and invited experts. However, the structure of the research project is drawn up in such a way that it should enable the possible involvement of other ecosystem services and indicators (based on the results obtained). The basic precondition of the fulfilment of PG 1 is the establishment of new and/or the adaptation of existing experiments and creation of a wide experimental base that will enable testing of individual methods, analysis of systems links and investigation of model adaptation measures leading to the optimisation of ecosystem services. The proposed experimental base starts with capacities that are already partly available in the workplace of the applicant and will consist not only of territories already managed in a standard manner but also of semi-pilot experiments of multifactorial field experiments.

Which are the expected results? a) Identification of ecosystem services within individual ecosystems; b) Proposal and launching of field and long-term experiments (or a modification of existing ones); c) Organization of workshops for stakeholders.

PG 2: Pilot testing of the set of quantifiable indicators which enable a description of the sustainability of ecosystem services

In spite of the fact that a number of institutions deal with the development of indicators, their definition and numbers are often very disputable. An indicator of sustainable development contains a certain type of quantitative or semi-quantitative information, which is derived from primary data and provides complete information about a certain characteristics of the ecosystem services. A complex of suitable indicators can be then used to analyze the sustainability of individual managed ecosystems. For that reason all indicators must meet certain basic preconditions. This means that they must be: (1) analytically well-founded and justified; (2) measurable, estimable or computable; (3) arranged into suitable time series; (4) comparable in an international scale and (5) policy relevant and addressed to a given policy and or political measure.

This means that the second partial goal is the selection and methodological definition of those indicators that will suitably describe ecosystem services provided by ecosystems under study and, at the same time to evaluate their sustainability on the basis of their aggregation. The first proposal of considered indicators is presented in Tab. 1 and will be further specified and refined in the course of solution of PG1 and also within the framework of a dialogue with stakeholders. (As mentioned above, the research project is an open system that enables to look for new indicators that could be also involved). This is due to the fact that above all on the local level (in concrete localities mentioned in parts A6 and C1) it is often possible to discover some local, specific links that may require the development of new indicators. Based on an aggregation of indicators, which are bound with a certain ecosystem service, it will be possible to define those that represent an obstacle for the sustainable development within the framework of a given group; at the same time, they can also evoke the solution of a further partial goal.

Which are the expected results? a) An exact and methodological specification of indicators describing ecosystem services provided by managed ecosystems; b) Identification of those indicators that probably participate in the „non-sustainability“ of managed ecosystems.

PG 3: Elaboration of methodology of work with indicator sets and testing of their practical informative value

          This is the key goal of the whole research project. The elaboration of methods enabling to define indicators and intervals of virtual (and above all sustainable) values of indicators will be of cardinal importance for the evaluation of sustainability of ecosystems. Regarding the fact that similar sets of indicators are used within the framework of PG2 (Tab. 1), it will be possible to generalize and compare potential values of individual indicators. This verification will be carried out on the base of existing and newly established experiments in such a way that robustness and correctness of obtained data will be warranted. The testing of calibrated sets of indicators under semi-pilot and field experiments will be especially important because they can be thereafter used for analysis performed in a regional (and possible also national) extent. In some cases, the elaboration of indicators will be a relatively simple affair but in others, this will require even several years of research.

Which are the expected results? a) Elaboration of a methodology for each indicator; b) Verification of indicators by means of experimental data; c) Verification of the informative value of indicator sets, i. e. of  their credibility and of consistency  of  the description of a given ecosystem.

PG 4: Complex evaluation of individual managed ecosystems and proposals of their optimization from the viewpoint of biological and technological aspects of sustainability

The tested sets of indicators with a defined functional range will be used when evaluating the sustainability of managed ecosystems. The sustainability of each ecosystem will be evaluated on the basis of a complex analysis of individual indicator values. Among others, this should enable identification of problematic phenomena contributing to a potential non-sustainability of the ecosystem and to propose solutions. This PG will also involve an optimized proposal of the arrangement of a managed ecosystem (in several variants) that not only will be sustainable from the viewpoint of biological and physical processes but that will also feasible from the technological point of view. The proposal of an optimized solution (or at least of its part) will be then tested under experimental conditions and the obtained results (indicator values) will be analyzed. When solving PG3 and PG4, teams working on stages 1-5 will co-operate (see below) because within the landscape it is not possible to optimize one managed ecosystem with out regard to others. For this reason it is planned to study the relationships and linkages existing between individual managed ecosystems in the landscape. The obtained results will be discussed with stakeholders with the aim of a verification of their wider implementation.

Which are the expected results? a) Evaluation of individual aspects of sustainability of ecosystems with an emphasis on their biological and physical aspects; b) Identification of problematic phenomena endangering the sustainability of ecosystems and verification of possible remedies; c) Proposal of measures leading to an optimization of ecosystems and their mutual relationships with the objective to assure their sustainability even under different climatic conditions.

PG 5: Analysis of vulnerabity and sustainability of managed ecosystems under conditions of climatic change

In the course of the first stage of solution of the research project, this PG will be focused to an evaluation of sensitivity of proposed indicators (and, subsequently, also of complete managed ecosystems and ecosystem services) to those meteorological and climatologic phenomena and processes that influence the sustainability of ecosystems under current climatic conditions. These concerns above all have an analysis of sensitivity of indicator values obtained within the framework of earlier (sometimes several decades long) experiments and their influence by: (i) basic climatic characteristics of a given region; (ii) annual, monthly and daily variability of climatic conditions and (iii) extreme hydrometeorological phenomena. At the same time, the obtained data about managed ecosystems and their services will be integrated into ecosystem models (e.g. dynamic models of growth and development of field crops; models of grassland ecosystems or rapidly growing woody species ecosystems) in such a way that it will be possible to quantify complex bounds existing between meteorological and climatic factors on the one hand and processes taking place within managed ecosystems on the other. It is also planned to develop supporting climatologic, pedologic, orographic and socio-economic databases, which should be a base for a generalization of outputs of PG1-4. Regarding the fact that the sustainability of managed ecosystems must be envisioned from a long-term point of view (i.e. for several decades at least), it is not possible to neglect the solution of questions associated with impacts of climatic changes on these ecosystems. 

This is also due to the fact that some measures that contribute to the sustainability of ecosystems at present could be contraproductive under changed climatic conditions.

This is the reason why it is planned that the research teams solving PG1-4 will elaborate, in co-operation with invited experts, scenarios of future climatic changes in accordance with the 4^th report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and that thereafter they will:

1.    evaluate the impact of climatic changes on indicators (selected from PG1-4 and on some specific indicators of PG5), ecosystem services and sustainability of managed ecosystems for the periods till years 2010; 2020; 2030, 2040 and 2050;

Tab.1: Selection of ecosystem services investigated within the framework of the research project and definition of indicators that enable their quantification. Numbers behind individual indicators refer to links with a concrete ecosystem services within a given managed ecosystem.

2.    evaluate technological, economic, ethical and sociological feasibility of possible adaptation measures and define the adaptation capacity of managed ecosystems under current and changed climatic conditions;

3.    try to combine potential impacts of climatic changes and the adaptation capacity with the purpose to obtain a parameter describing the vulnerability of a territory (this will be thereafter generalized for other regions understudy and, possibly, also for other similar ecosystems existing in the Czech Republic).

The main goal of this analysis of vulnerability is a definition of endangered managed ecosystems, territories and risky methods of husbandry and a proposal of suitable adaptation mechanisms. Results of PG5 will be continuously consulted with stakeholders (including representative of governmental bodies) in such a way that it will be possible to create conditions for a sustainable development of managed ecosystems and to preserve the key services, which they provide.

Which are the expected results? a) Evaluation of specific links existing between indicators of ecosystem sustainability on the one hand and meteorological phenomena and climatic processes on the other; b) Evaluation (and/or development) of simplified ecosystem models, which will enable to describe these complex linkages; c) Quantification of impacts of climatic changes within selected time horizons/periods; d) Determination of the adaptation capacity of ecosystems and of feasibility of adaptation measures; e) Identification of vulnerability of ecosystems (incl. the possibility of their generalization for the whole territory of the CR).

Regarding the solution of the proposed research project it is planned to specify altogether five stages of research activities:

During the first four stages, partial goals 1 to 4 will be solved simultanously in all ecosystems and obtained results will be evaluated in the subseqent Stage 5 to obtain a synthesis and, especially, optimized sustainability of all managed ecosystems under study. The linkage of individual stages is assured by the use of unified methodologies, experimental localities, joint operation of investment facilities,  consquent co-ordination of individual workgroups and teams, above all, shared interest to reach a sustainable development of managed ecosystsems because they cover 54 % of the total territory of the Czech Republic.

Stage 1

Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of ecosystems on arable land

Head: Prof. Ing. Jan Křen, CSc.

In the contemporary systems of husbandry, a harmonization of economic use of arable land in a competitive environment with the need to preserve its non-productional functions and with efforts to protect soil and the environment against negative effects of this exploitation is becoming more and more important. In the Czech Republic, managed ecosystems on arable land represent (similar to the majority of European countries) the most frequent type of environment (i.e. approximately 40 % of the total Czech territory). In 1970s – 1980s, collectivization (associated with a massive liquidation of ecological stabilizing elements), establishment of large blocks of fields and intensification of production represent an important reversal in the development of rural landscape. Ameliorations were carried out on more than 1 million hectares and the drained area with permanent grassland was ploughed and changed into arable land. This changed the landscape mosaic and the reducuction of the  heterogeneity of ecosystems. Numerous groves, small forests and hedges as natural habitats of various plants and wild animals determining and influencing biodiversity and ecostabilising functions of the landscape were liquidated. Various interventions often deteriorated and/or decreased the natural fertility of soil, reduced retention capacity and basically changed water and nutrient cycling of the landscape. The contemporary ecosystems existing on arable land are characterised by a high proportion of ploughed fields (71.2 %), fields that are too large, low proportion of ecostabilising elements, high proportion of fields endangered with water and wind erosion (41% of strongly endangered fields), and in some localities also degradation or local contamination of soil and increased leaching of nutrients. The most serious consequences of this are: reduction of landscape heterogeneity, decrease in soil fertility, increased leaching of biogenic substances (Nitrate Directive – Governmental Regulation No. 103/2003 Sb.), inhibition of biological and biochemical processes in soil, markedly reduced retention capacity of soil and/or landscape and decrease in biodiversity and population numbers of native species.

Stage 2

Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of grassland ecosystems

Head: Ing. Stanislav Hejduk, Ph.D.

In the Czech Republic, the total area of permanent grassland is nearly 1 million hectares. Besides, there are another ca 400 thous. ha of lawn/turf (non-agricultural) and 80 thousand ha of temporary grassland and clover-grassland stands on arable land. The primary reason for the existence of secondary grassland stands was an effort to produce fodder for farm animals and their use for recreational purposes was of only a marginal importance. In our country, grassland stands were established mostly after the deforestation; for that reason they require additional energy for their maintenance because otherwise they gradually change again into forests. However, it is necessary to emphasize that the need of supplementary energy for this maintenance of grassland ecosystems is significantly lower than that of ecosystems on arable land.

Recently, the importance of non-productive functions of grassland has considerably increased and it can be said that they are often socially more important than the production of fodder itself. Although the total area of grassland stands is still increasing, their existence is often dependent on subsidy policy of the Czech government and EU. Fodder crops on arable land are preferred in agricultural practice as a source of forage for farm animals with a higher performance and for that reason it is necessary to spent inefficiently substantial amounts of money for cutting and/or mulching of those grassland areas that are not used for production of fodder (it is estimated that they represent ca 20% of the total area of permanent grassland stands). Low yields and low quality of fodder are the main reasons of a limited interest of farmers to use stands with a high abundance of plant species. Tallovin & Jeferson (1999) emphasised that on these stands yields of forage were at least by 50% lower than on intensively managed meadows and pastures. Grazing is the most efficient method of management of permanent grassland stands (minimum needs of energy supply, lower production but higher quality of forage, animal welfare). In the past, the research of permanent grassland stand was focused above all to an intensification of production (application of fertilisers, herbicides, drainage). Although this resulted in higher yields and a better quality of forage, the corresponding expenses were often used rather inefficiently. The intensification usually resulted only in a rapid reduction of biodiversity (abundance of species) and of some other externalities.

Stage 3

Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of ecosystems of rapidly growing woody species

Head: Ass. Prof. Ing. Pavel Sedlák, CSc.

  The ecosystem of rapidly growing woody species is an alternative of agricultural production of arable land and its purpose is to produce biofuel for facilities with a direct combustion to produce heat energy or for gasification and a subsequent production of heat and electric energy. A substitution of classical production of food on arable land with this method of production is the main reason of this use of agricultural land. According to the White Paper, which contains tasks agreed upon within the framework of accession negotiations between the Czech Republic and European Union, it is necessary to substitute altogether 8% of conventional production of electric energy by energies from renewable resources. According to the opinion of many authors, an intentional production of biomass is the most potentional source of renewable energy under conditions of the Czech Republic. This trend of the governmental policy results from provisions of the Act No. 80/2005 of 31 March 2005 on the support of energy generation from renewable sources of energy in accordance with the Directive of the European Parliament and Council  No. 2001/77/EC. Growing of energy-rich annual and perennial herbs is a part of PG1 and PG2 but rapidly growing woody species should be considered a separate ecosystem, mainly due to a specific method of cultivation.

  The balance of carbon dioxide as one of the most important greenhouse gases is an important reason for a global substitution of fossil sources of energy by production of biological fuels. When combusting biological fuels for energy generation, theoretically only that amount of CO₂ can be released into the atmosphere, which was fixed during the process of photosynthesis. This means that the overall balance of CO₂ in the atmosphere is not disturbed and this is an important contribution to the sustainability of global ecosystems. This method of the use of arable land leads to the reduction of energy inputs and (potentionally) also inputs of pesticides and fertilisers (both organic and, above all, mineral). Soil under a plantation of rapidly growing woody species is less endangered by water erosion because it is covered with vegetation all the year round; moreover, as compared with a conventional method of tillage it can be a refuge for many species of plants and animals and thus contribute to a higher heterogeneity (and abundance) of the landscape. In spite of relatively high energy. In spite of a considerable expenses associated with final growing operations it can be expected that the plantations of fast growing woody species will not show any permanent effect on a given locality; however, it is necessary to test the attribute of sustainability of these plantations from the viewpoint of preservation of soil fertility. The are no data available in the world literature about plantations of fast-growing wood species as ecosystems and for that reason it is necessary to identify and describe all ecosystem services of plantations of fast-growiung woody species.

Stage 4

Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of aquatic ecosystems

Head: Ass. Prof. Ing. Petr Spurný, Ph.D.

           The Czech Republic, as an important European headwater region, has a dense network of smaller streams that drain quickly surface water away. The phenomenon of a negative water balance limits for a long time not only the overall economic growth (because water is a strategic resource) but also influences ecological functions of river catchment areas and water bodies in the landscape. However, in addition to these natural conditions and factors a rapid development of the national economy (industry, agriculture, urban conglomerations), which took place within the last fifty years, showed additional negative effects on aquatic ecosystems both locally and generally and all these phenomena are further intensified due to current climatic changes. Ecology and problem of sustainable use of water resources are now important not only in European but also global dimensions. Besides, surface waters are an indispensable and very valuable part of the environment and for that reason their protection is in the focus also within the EU (Directive No. 2000/60/ES of   23 October, 2000, i. e. the so-called „Water Framework Directive“).

          In the Czech Republic, negative effect on surface water resources above all due to the runoff and emissions of industrial, agricultural and municipal origin, soil erosion and fluctuating hydrological regime associated with changing temperatures could be observed for a long time. All these changes result in eutrophication, water pollution and endangerment of genetic resources due to a disturbed stability of populations of aquatic fauna and flora. Hydrobionts of surface waters respond very sensitively to various anthropogenous effects. Phytoplankton, zoobenthos and fish not only indicate but also reflect long-term trends in the dynamics of degradation of aquatic ecosystems, especially through the changes in their diversity and equitability. A description of the status quo and an identification of developmental trends taking place in these ecosystems is a basic precondition of a timely reaction to the degradation of aquatic ecosystems due to anthropogenous effects and enables to intervene and introduce new and/or modify the existing methods of  a complex management of the landscape. A description of the state and developmental trends of water bodies occurring in the rural landscape with a different degree of anthropogenous degradation of aquatic environment is the most important precondition of a timely response to changes resulting from the introduction and/or modification of methods of a sustainable management of the landscape.

Stage 5

Analysis of vulnerability and sustainability of managed ecosystems under conditions of global climatic changes

Head: Mgr. Ing. Miroslav Trnka, Ph.D.

       In the course of the 21^st century the Czech Republic will be confronted with phenomena associated with and resulting from such global changes as population growth, environmental pollution, climatic changes and different accents on landscape use. According to the majority of scenarios, the world population will increase by 2 – 4 billions till the year 2050 and this will result in increased pressures on food production and energy supply. as compared with the period before the industrial revolution, the concentration of greenhouse gases will double and this probably will result in an growth of global temperature by 1.4-5.8°C (Schröter et al., 2004). Changes in the landscape use will affect not only agriculture, forestry, rural communities and biodiversity but also values associated with the traditional look of the landscape, especially in so densely populated regions as in Central and Western Europe (Rounswell et al., 2004). These processes have already influenced and will further influence the sustainability of the development of managed ecosystems above all through a changed pressure on provided ecosystem services as a consequence of climatic conditions in regions where these ecosystems are situated. There are many very close and often also very complex linkages between sustainable development and current climatic changes (Robinson a Herbert, 2001; Najam et al., 2003). As already mentioned in the IPPC report from the year 2001, approaches that utilise the synergy existing between environmental protection on the one hand and key socio-economic parameters (e.g. economic growth) on the other may alleviate negative impacts of climatic changes, reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems and support the sustainable development (Watson, 2001). While on a global level the application of principles of a sustainable use of ecosystems and global climatic changes nay be considered for two parallel and closely interlinked processes, on the level of the CR and/or even of regions the changing climatic conditions can be evaluated only as framework, in which it will be necessary to evaluate individual aspects of sustainability of managed ecosystems. In this context it should be emphasised that, unfortunately in the Czech Republic the application of principles of sustainability will show only a marginal effect on running climatic changes; nevertheless, this can markedly contribute to a reduction of or, paradoxically, to an increase in vulnerability of some managed ecosystems. In accordance with the prepared 4^th IPCC Report and also with conclusions of the ATEAM EU-Project (2001-2004), which studied possible impacts of climatic changes and also vulnerability of managed ecosystems, this research project will be focused on evaluation of the vulnerability of managed ecosystems and ecosystem services with regard to present climatic changes as well as on an analysis of their sustainability.

           The research project is proposed for a period of six years from the 1^st January, 2007 to the 31^st December, 2012. Its time schedule respects the proposed methodology, enables to coordinate activities of individual workgroups and, in a final effect, leads to the fulfilment of laid down goals. Data presented in Tab. 2 involve only the most important activity to illustrate the general time axis and the logical structure of activities, which are mutually linked up.

In accordance with partial objectives of the research project given in part A3 it is obvious that the achieved outcomes will be related particularly to biological and technological aspects of sustainability of chosen controlled ecosystems under current and changing climatic conditions.

A survey of the outcomes that can be checked (“what” can be checked is in parentheses):

2007:

Ø    complex elaborated methodologies for determination of chosen indicators and their grouping - 26 indicators at the first stage (Table 1) that can differ in the type from the controlled ecosystem (applicable guidelines) 

Ø    set up and conduct of field experiments inclusive of their variants, material, labor force, equipment, etc. (existence of the experiments and records from their methods)

Ø    conclusions of workshops with stakeholders (documented presentations of investigators and records of conclusions from workshops as bases for specifying the investigation strategy) 

Ø    establishment of web site of the research project with all information posted to the site   (Internet address of www pages)

2008:

Ø    determination and testing of required values of the indicator group for arable land and water ecosystems (results of the first year of testing, reviewing scientific papers)

Ø    identification of “problematic” indicators regarding mutual comparison of evaluated ecosystems and identification of value intervals of their functionality in compared ecosystems (specialized papers)

Ø    testing of use of the methodological process under farm conditions – assessment of availability of the base necessary for determination of indicators from book-keeping and agronomic records point of view.  These farm records include technological and economic requirements of additional measurements (specialized papers)

Ø    calibrated and tested ecosystem models CERES, GRAM, STICS, WOFOST (databases in the form of input sets for ecosystem models, specialized papers)

2009:

Ø    determination and testing of required values of the indicators for grass and fast-growing woody plants (results from two-year testing, reviewing scientific papers)

Ø    identification and analysis of weaknesses of the current management of arable land and water ecosystems considering their sustainable development (a monograph or reviewing scientific papers)

Ø    use of tested indicators under farm conditions (guidelines for searching data for calculating of indicators in practice, a reviewed scientific paper)

Ø    acquaintance of stakeholders with the two-year results of  the research project (documented presentations of investigators and records of conclusions from workshops as bases for specification of guidelines and “required” values of indicators) 

Ø    calibrated and tested ecosystem models APSIM, SWAP, Climex, Dymex (databases in the form of input set into ecosystem models, specialized as well as reviewed scientific papers)

Ø    documentation of seven current various scenarios of climatic changes based on Global Circulation Models (a reviewed scientific paper)

2010:

Ø    identification and analysis of weaknesses of current management of grass and fast-growing woody plant ecosystems considering sustainable development (a monograph or reviewed scientific papers)

Ø    evaluation of contribution of the fast-growing woody plant ecosystem regarding CO2 balance and relationships to the other examined ecosystems (monographs in the publication series of the MUAF Brno “Fólia“)

Ø    complex study on biodiversity of controlled ecosystems (a book)

Ø    calibrated and tested ecosystem models CANDY, ECAMON, SPECIES, SECRETS (databases in the form of input sets into ecosystem models, both specialized and reviewed scientific papers)

Ø    analysis of impacts of climatic changes and adaptation capacity (in relation to “weaknesses” found in the sustainability assessment) of controlled ecosystems (specialized papers)

2011:

Ø    auditing sustainability of farming practices used including impacts on the environment of individual ecosystem types, the testing of usability of this audit in order to implement the instruction EU EMAS II  (expertises and studies of model farms)

Ø    development of management practices leading towards sustainability of individual controlled ecosystems (guidelines containing proposals of their use to improve “good agricultural practice rules”)

Ø    innovated methods for determination of chosen indicators and their grouping  (guidelines)

Ø    analysis of impacts of climatic changes and adaptation capacity of individual controlled ecosystems (reviewed scientific paper)

2012:

Ø    the third workshop with stakeholders, discussion the results of four-year optimizing the controlled ecosystems (documented presentations of investigators and conclusions on introduction of achieved results into practice)

Ø    elaboration of a complex methodology for evaluation and projecting of sustainable controlled ecosystems (guidelines, reviewed scientific papers)

Ø    analysis of ecosystem vulnerability and proposal of adaptation measures for ecosystem sustainability under anticipated climatic conditions (a monograph)

Ø    bases for more effective diversification of subsidies and determination of priorities of research supporting sustainable agriculture in multifunctional landscape (a report for the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports and Ministry of Agriculture)

2007-2012 (each year): (1) internal publication of results gained from agricultural terrain and experimental studies in the form of integrated databases (accessible to investigators and reviewers of the project) (2) organization of a public control day of the investigators included in group D1 and invited internal opponents.

Results of project solution will be applied in the following manner:

Ø    Publications in Czech and international scientific journals;

Ø     Publication of at least 2 special numbers of the scientific journal „Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis“;

Ø    Presentation of methods and discussions about results with stakeholders and decision makers;

Ø    Publication of methodologies;

Ø    Dissemination of results among professional public through papers published in professional journals;

Ø    Presentations in scientific conferences and workshops;

Ø    Organisation of professional and consultancy workshops (including an active presentation in the form of excursions and lecture cycles);

Ø    Establishment and operation of a web homepage;

Ø    Presentation of results in courses of MSc and PhD study programmes;

Ø    Development and elaboration of a special software;

Ø    Elaboration of research reports suitable for purposes of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Ministry of Education, Youth and Physical Training and Ministry of Agriculture.

Publication of results in various journals: The research project has a marked character of scientific and developmental work. For that reason a duty for the publication of results and an exact identification of financial resources (i.e. the presentation of the number of research project).

Special numbers of the scientific journal „Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis“ dealing only with results of this research project will be issued in the third and sixth year of research activities and will be posted to various prestigious workplaces both in the Czech Republic and abroad.

Presentation of methodologies and discussions about obtained results with stakeholders and decision makers): As it results from rules and principles of applied research, this will be the basic and the most important form of application of obtained results. In contradistinction to current practice used in the majority of Czech projects this project envisages an active participation of some selected representatives of stakeholders (above all farmers, employees of the management of water catchment areas and of fisheries) and decision makers (State Phytosanitary Authority, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Ministry of Agriculture, regional offices of the Czech environmental Inspection etc.) from the very beginning of formulation of methodology of the research and defining specific directions of the research.

Publication of methodologies: Methodologies that obtain concrete results are an integral part of scientific work. Regarding the space available in scientific journals as well as a different approach to the scientific community the methodologies will be elaborated in a wider scale with regard to their practical applications.

Dissemination of results among members of professional public: The character of the research project and its practical orientation requires direct application of obtained results in individual managed ecosystem and, in a wider conception,  in the agricultural/rural landscape. A wide spectrum of Czech professional journals (e.g. Úroda, Zemědělec, Rostlinolékař, zemědělský týdeník, Obilnářské listy, Pícninářské listy, and Rybníkářství) will be used as a platform for publication, transfer of information and presentation of newly obtained data among the widest professional public.

Organization of professional and consultancy workshops: Professional and consultancy workshops as well as courses of long-life education represent a contact forum for discussions with users of obtained R&D results (future stakeholders). Regarding a long tradition and good experience with the organization of such events at the Faculty of Agronomy they will represent the most direct form of dissemination of results among stakeholders and their application in agricultural practice.

Establishment and operation of web homepage: Regarding the number of researchers, expected outputs/results and potential users of results of the proposed research project (stakeholders) it is planned to establish special Internet homepages on the server of the Faculty of Agronomy, MUAF in Brno. These pages will be used as a tool for the co-ordination of the project, immediate presentation of up-to-date results, survey of the fulfilment of set-up goals and a partial contact with the media.

Involvement of obtained results in the educational process: Besides R&D activities, the mission of each university is to educate people and to produce young professionals. The results of the research project will be therefore transformed into lectures, workshops and study materials for study lines, the curricula of which is related to the general orientation of the research project. Regarding the number of research team members (see part D1) and the numbers of warranted subjects and/or lines of study this form of output assures a high efficiency of dissemination of obtained results.

Development and elaboration of special software: A number of ambitious scientific projects is finished and/or supported by means of software applications. Although these are mostly simplified model tools that are limited by the total amount of entry data, there is still more and more space for their practical use in the sphere of pedagogical work. For this reason it is planned to transform some methodical procedures into the form of algorithms and/or models.

Elaboration of research reports: Annual research reports will be a standard output that will summarize the obtained results and document the course of research activities. 

Each stage of the research project has a head that is responsible for the fulfilment of set-up goals (see Part A3). A more detailed survey is presented  in the time schedule of research activities (Part A5) and it is expected that each of them will have two assistants who will be responsible for the co-ordination of work, supervision and for control of obtained results. In cooperation with the head of the research project these persons will control partial research activities including the guidance of individual experiments and their evaluation from the viewpoint of sustainability of ecosystems. A survey of individual disciplines and involvement of warranting workplaces into individual stages of the research project is presented in Tab.3.

Table 3: A survey of participating departments of the Faculty of Agronomy, MUAF Brno

The research project is based on a scientific analysis of individual indicators presented in Tab. 1. The following text outlines methodical procedures used for their definition in individual managed ecosystems (Stages 1- 4).  Methodology for stage 5 will be dealt with separately.

Yields and their stability: Productive (or bioproductive) capacities of ecosystems will be evaluated on the base of the following yield parameters (as dependent on further use of their produce): (i) biological yield (i.e. production of biomass = yields of main product and of by-products), (ii) economic yield (i.e. yield of the main product), (iii) harvest index (ratio of economic and biological yields), (iv) yield in cereal units (using coefficients, conversion of yields of main product and of by-products of cultivated crops to the yield of cereals). The last parameter enables to compare productive capacity of systems with a different structure of crops. Yield stability will be evaluated on the base of basic statistical characteristics of variability (standard deviation, variation coefficient, histogram of the density of distribution of values – asymmetry, excess) of aforementioned yield categories both in spatial (several fields and several crops) and temporal (several years) dimensions.

          In grassland stands, biological yields are equal to economic yields (evaluated is the yield of fodder dry matter per year and/or dynamics of its growth during the year). Using the parameters of quality it is possible to evaluate the yield of crude protein and net energy per hectare. From the viewpoint of sustainability, the stability of yields in individual years is a very important parameter.

         In plantations of fast-growing woody species, the economic yield differs from the total biological yield and the yield of wood mass as a basic parameter if given either in defined or absolute dry matter (t.ha^-1.r^-1) because of the harvest within a rotation period. During the growth stage the yield of wood mass will be evaluated by means of standard methods of yield estimates.

When evaluating the sustainability of aquatic ecosystem management (production of market fish) fish production will be estimated with regard to the degree of intensity of rearing  and the natural productive capacity of water reservoir under study, i.e. as annual production of fish per unit of water area (1 ha). When evaluating management systems in running waters (i.e. fishing grounds) attention will be paid to abundance and biomass with a special regard to economically important species and their annual catch per unit area (ha) as related to the pressure of anglers.

Primary production potential, degree of trophism and availability of biogenic elements in the aquatic ecosystem: The total amount of light penetrating through the water column and supply of carbon dioxide and biogenic elements (N, P) are the factors that control the intensity of primary production of aquatic ecosystems. The biomass of producers and their physiological condition and water temperature play also an important role. The counting of microorganisms and the estimation of chlorophyll a represent one of the most frequent methods of quantification of biomass of primary producers. The numbers of phytoplankton after their thickening in an ultra filtration unit will be counted in Bürker’s chamber (Marvan, 1957). Chlorophyll a will be estimated according to the Czech standard ČSN ISO 10260. Numbers of cells and the amount of chlorophyll a enable to estimate the degree of trophic capacity of water and, thus, also the degree of its eutrophication. Contents of total nitrogen and phosphorus and their presence in compounds that are most available for primary producers (ammonium ions, nitrates and orthophosphates) are the best proven indicators of the trophic capacity of aquatic ecosystems potential. Based on the knowledge of the total biomass of primary producers and amounts of biogenic elements in the system is then possible to predict the secondary productivity of the animal component of biocenoses of aquatic ecosystems.

Quality of production: When evaluating the sustainability of methods of management or husbandry, the quality of production will be evaluated using standards of quality defined for individual crops (commodities). It is also planned to perform analytical research, which enables a more detailed evaluation of quality of production of individual commodities in managed ecosystems with the objective to explain the main causes of changes in quality and to suggest corresponding measures.

In grassland stands, the quality of forage is influenced by numerous factors (botanical composition of the stand, fertilization, date of cutting, method of preservation etc.). Contents of crude protein, fibre, net energy and ash /indicating the degree of contamination of fodder) are the decisive (and also easily estimable) parameters of stand quality. Regarding the fact that the major part of forage in usually preserved (silage is fed to animals for 200 days per year) it is also necessary to consider the quality of the fermentation process. In extensively used (i.e. lately harvested) grassland stands one must take into account also the risk of mycotoxin contamination of harvested fodder.

In plantations of fast-growing woody species, the quality of production of wood mass is given by those parameters that determine its use for generation of energy (combusting, gasification). When evaluating indicators of quality it is necessary to follow the properties of wood mass during its storage and to monitor its losses caused by both biotic and abiotic factors during its manipulation and further processing.

          The quality of production of fish biomass will be evaluated by manes of chemical analyses  of its quality, including estimations of the content of poly-unsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), fatty acids  (by means of standard methods of gas chromatography), and residues of some specific pollutants (heavy metals).

Indicators of nutrient balance: In all managed ecosystems the evaluation of the balance of nutrients is the most important method that enables us to reach the required values of indicators as far as soil fertility and quality of the environment are concerned. Individual nutrients may be applied in the form of both mineral and organic fertilisers. When supplying nutrients, it is necessary to know their requirements and ecologically acceptable ranges of their reserves in soil, e.g. the available reserve of nitrogen (ARN), which expresses an ecologically acceptable content of N_min in the soil layer of 0 – 100 cm at the beginning of the leaching period (in September); in sandy and clay type soils the ARN values should be < 45 kg N.ha^-1 and < 70 kg N.ha^-1, respectively. Similarly, available reserves of other nutrients will be also estimated as agronomically necessary and ecologically acceptable ranges of their reserves in soil. An ecologically acceptable content of N_min in ground and surface water (< 11.2 mg.l^-1 and < 5.6 mg.l^-1 are the EU standard and the EU recommendation for drinking water).

Individual balance of nutrients is characterized as shares of nutrients in inputs (i.e. in fertilizers) and outputs (i.e. in produce) on all plots. These balances are ancillary parameters enabling us to monitor slow changes in nutrient reserves and their required values are ≥ 1. To reach and maintain the required levels of nutrient balance it is necessary either to import organic and mineral fertilizers or to export the nutrients through harvested products. The balance can be evaluated in two different manners: (i) on the base of a ratio of imported and exported nutrients, (ii) as a difference between supplied and taken-away nutrients.

The estimation of these parameters enables:

      a) In case of phosphorus and potassium: (i) to estimate the necessary range of their reserves in soil; (ii) to define plots that should be dressed in individual years and (iii) to determine the doses of individual nutrients.

   b) In case of nitrogen: (i) to estimate levels of available nitrogen necessary for the attainment of its acceptable contents in ground and surface water; (ii) to define plots/crops with higher reserves of available nitrogen than the required range; (iii) to optimize its content by means of integrated plant nutrition and suitable crop rotations.

            In grassland stands, attention will be paid to the use of leguminoses as a cheap source of nitrogen. Further it is necessary to evaluate the systemic use of manure when assuring the cycling of nutrients within the farm and trying to increase its independence on external sources (sustainability).

Balance of organic matter: The organic matter balance will be calculated as a ratio between annual inputs and outputs of organic matter (i.e. as it supply and degradation). Plant residues (including green manure) and organic dressing (t.ha^-1) multiplied by coefficients of humification are defined as inputs. Outputs involve the estimated loss of organic matter present in soil through decomposition and potential erosion. This balance should be equal or greater than 1. Farm balances will be expressed as a weighed mean. Calculations will involve data about: (i) dry matter of post-harvest residues (t.ha^-1) of individual crops; (ii) dry matter of organic fertilizers (manure, gully, compost, and liquid manure), (iii) catch crops and ploughed-in straw that remained on fields.

Organic matter of wood is the parameter under study in plantations of fast-growing woody species. The balance of organic matter will involve the foliage remaining on the plot   to assure the cycling of nutrients and the amount of organic matter in treated (tilled) inter-rows. The monitoring of organic matter balance is important on heavy soils that show a tendency to compaction and waterlogging as well as on light ones that are prone to erosion and drying up. The organic matter balance influences the following parameters of soil fertility: (i) physical (equilibrium existing among solid particles, air and soil water); (ii) chemical (content of nutrients as a result of mineralization of organic matter) and (iii) biological (soil microorganisms suppressing pathogens and restoring soil structure).

Balance of carbon: The energy-rich crops are used as a substitute of fossil fuels due to a balanced emission of carbon dioxide within the framework of the use of biomass as source of energy. For this reason wood biomass from plantations of fast-growing woody species will be analyzed not only for contents of standard nutrients and organic carbon; but also for the  chemical analysis enabling stechiometric calculations of potential CO₂ emission will be performed. Theoretical amounts will be thereafter tested by combustion of wood in an experimental furnace to obtain actual emissions of not only CO and CO₂ but also other gases. In addition to a gross indicator „CO₂ emissions resulting from energy generation” (OECD) the balance of bound CO₂ and that released when generating energy will be calculated together with carbon residues in ash and in solid soot particles.

Consumption of fossil fuels and energy balance: The balance of energy expresses the permanent utility value of agricultural products, is not sensitive to random fluctuations and enables comparison in an objective manner not only to different types of production but also to different kinds of manufacturing activities. This energy evaluation can be used as a suitable supplement of economic analysis. The following parameters are used when analyzing the energy balance: energy consumption, energetic gain, energy intensity, input/output etc. The following parameters will be used: (i) energy inputs – these expressed both direct and indirect energy consumption with a simultaneous estimation of the share of fossil fuels; (ii) energy outputs – these correspond with the physical value of combustion heat of harvested biomass and are derived from yields and composition of dry matter; (iii) net energy values – energy output (gain of energy), energy intensity and output/input ratio, which are derived from the energy input, yields a energy output.

Energy consumption of business facilities and machinery will be expressed by means of energy equivalents that are adapted and related to the technical progress and modern facilities and inputs.

In all three ecosystems the harvested biomass will be evaluated on the basis of combustion heat (which is for individual products specific). In ecosystems on arable land, cereal units (Woedemann, 1944) will be used as a criterion of aggregation in addition to values of gross energy. In this way it will be possible to evaluate the energy balance of not only individual crop turnovers but also of whole production systems of individual enterprises and to compare different products on the base of their physiological nutritive value.

In grassland stands, gross energy of fodder will be used as the basic output and it is expected that the greatest differences in energy balance will be between pastures (with the highest input/output ratio) on the one hand and all-year-preserved forage (the lowest i/o) on the other. Until now, this energy balance of grassland stands has not been presented under conditions of the Czech Republic. This analysis of energy balance should be used as a tool for optimization of governmental subsidy policy (i.e. as the support of soft technologies).

          As compared with standard crops, the so-called ecobalance is estimated in energy-rich crops; this value is expressed as a ratio of energy of inputs to that of outputs in the form of the main product (wood in the ecosystem of fast-growing woody species). The output of energy will be evaluated by means of combustion heat and on the base of heating value of wood biomass and factors influencing it.

Soil degradation: Under this term we understand a number of phenomena that markedly influence (in this case negatively) the most valuable property of soil, i.e. it's fertility. Erosion is the most important of them, followed by characteristics of soil organic matter, compaction, pH, structure, salt content etc. Erosion shows a negative effect above all on soil fertility and eutrophication of water. Erosion is caused by the mechanic action of water and wind. Wischmeier & Smith (1978) tried to develop simulation models of erosion for conditions of the United States. As inputs they defined the following: rain factor, factor of soil erosion (annual loss of soil particles as related to precipitation), slope length and gradient and vegetation cover.

Content and quality of soil organic matter and humus are factors that influence those physical and chemical properties of soil that show a direct impact on parameters of soil fertility. From the ecological point of view the soil organic matter represents its reserves of carbon and organic nitrogen and shows an indirect effect on climatic conditions (Christen & O´Halloran-Wietholz, 2002). Temperature and humidity are factors that significantly influence the humus content in a given site. Similarly as a deficiency, also the surplus of organic matter shows negative effects because it may result in an uncontrolled mineralization and, thus, loss of nutrients. Several C-N-models have been developed in efforts to estimate changes in the content of soil organic matter; basing on detailed soil characteristics and climatic data, these models simulate dynamics of changes in soil organic matter. As examples it is possible to mention the NCSOIL model developed at the University of Minnesota, USA (Molina, 1983), the MOSOM model developed in the Research Institute for Agrobiology and Soil Fertility Haren, the Netherlands (Verberne, 1990), the ROTHC–26.3 model developed in the Research Station v Rothamsted, England (Coleman, 1999), the CANDY model developed in the Environmental Centre in Leipzig, Germany (Franko et al., 1995) and the SOMNET model developed in the Research Station Rothamsted, England  in co-operation with the University of Aberdeen (Faloon & Smith, 2000).

The soil compaction results from a too high pressure of heavy agricultural machinery on the soil surface. These effects of an increased weight of machines may be alleviated by a greater width of tyres and the use of doubled wheels or Terra tyres. In spite of this, however, there are negative changes in physical properties of soil, especially in the plough layer and in the subsoil.

On pastures, the compaction of soil may be caused by animals (when applying unsuitable systems of grazing) and this can be manifested above all in a decrease in soil permeability, deterioration of soil structure and reduction of biological activities. Horn & Fleige (2001) tried to model the development of soil compaction but their results were problematic due to a combination of too many physical factors so that the interpretation of results was  difficult.

The soil structure results from a complex action of physical, chemical and biological factors. These belong to basic parameters of soil fertility and maturity. The soil structure will be evaluated on the base of percentages of individual categories of soil aggregates (coefficient of structurality) and their stability (water resistance).

The pH value of soil influences a number of chemical, physical and biological properties of soil (e.g. soil structure, availability of nutrients, occurrence of aluminium ions, nitrification, activity of soil microorganisms etc.). The buffering capacity of soil is an important property of soil that is associated with its pH and expresses the capability to neutralize a part of hydrogen ions so that its acidity fluctuates within normal limits and resists acidification pressures. Although they are widely dependent on the weathering of the parent rock, biological activities of soil microorganisms play an important role in these processes because they can change the chemistry of the soil environment (Prax & Pokorný, 1990). For that reason both agronomical and ecological pH ranges will be defined for individual soils and for different crops.

The biological activity of soil will be evaluated on the basis of respiration (production of CO2): The basal respiration of soil microorganisms (BR) is the respiratory activity of microorganisms without any substrate supplement and it is expressed as the output of carbon dioxide per time unit.

The potential respiration of soil microorganisms (PR) is the indicator of the maximum possible metabolic response of the microbial population to the easily available organic substrate.

The ratio PR/BR enables comparison to the potential and basal soil respiration (Parkinson & Coleman, 1991). Its value provides information about limits of basal soil respiration due to the lack of available nutrients. A small difference between PR and BR indicates the presence of available organic material in soil. Under conditions of terrestric managed ecosystems we will try to establish the release of CO₂ from the soil surface into the atmosphere by means of a classical titration method (for the estimation of basal respiration).

Consumption of pesticides and the environmental load: The determination of the need of pesticides is based on their amount used within the framework of growing technologies of individual crops. At the level of a farm, it is necessary to calculate weighed means of their consumption for individual crops per unit area. The calculated requirements are then related to the same parameter in the reference system (0 < SP < 1). When defining the required range of values, the following factors are taken into account: (i) safety and hygienic regulations; (ii) local aspects (e.g. protection zones of water resources, recreational regions etc.); (iii) local conditions and (iv) husbandry system or technology of crop cultivation.

The objective should be always to reach values corresponding with 70 % of a standard consumption of pesticides and/or their active components. The level of 40 % of the standard consumption can be held as a very ambitious goal. 

The load of the environment (atmosphere, soil water) of pesticides is defined on the basis of residues of pesticides used. Evaluated will be individual pesticides or groups of pesticides applied for the treatment of one crop, within one ecosystem or on the whole farm – see methodology published by Wijnands (1997).

Index of soil vegetation cover (ISVC): This index indicates the extent of cover of soil surface with vegetation and/or post-harvest residues within the decisive part of the growing season and/or all year round. A weighed mean of values recorded on all plots (including the ecological infrastructure and set-aside plots) represents the value that characteristic the whole farm. This calculation requires data about the date of sowing/planting, germination and date of harvest, which should be recorded in technological cards of individual crops. The range of values: ISVC = 1 (the maximum value) – soil is fully covered with vegetation and or post-harvest plant residues, ISVC = 0 (the minimum value) – plots are set aside for the whole year.

The share of individual managed ecosystems in the landscape: This will be evaluated as the percentage of a given ecosystem area in the total area of cultivated agricultural land (or the total territory of the Czech Republic). The Czech Republic, for example, is criticised because of a very high share of arable land (73 %); this approximately by 10 % more than in comparable West European countries.

Heterogeneity of the agricultural system (the share of ecological infrastructure and the biodiversity): The compatibility of the environmental protection and the use of agricultural land is undoubtedly the most complicated aspect of creation of sustainable production systems (Christen, 1999). The transition between a natural and cultural landscape has not been clearly defined yet. The occurrence of some plant species is directly associated with certain tillage practices and agrotechnical measures and interventions. Haber (1997) emphasised that from the viewpoint of landscaping and ecology the extensification does not represent a starting point for sustainable agriculture. The establishment of all forms of the landscape use – from extensive to intensive ones – would be more meaningful but always with regard to the bearing capacity of individual sites. In this context, the territorial/local systems of ecologic stability (e.g. shrubs, dikes, road margins, green belts and windbreaks etc.) play a special role and a proper arrangement of these biotopes can show a positive impact  on the system of agricultural production because it creates favorable living conditions for beneficial organisms on the one hand and increases the overall biological abundance of the landscape on the other.

        The ecological infrastructure is defined as that share of land area (e.g. within the framework of a farm or a cadastral territory), which is not used for agricultural production (and involves protective belts, hedges, escape coverts, shrubs, balks, landscape corridors for wild flora and fauna etc.). Territorial systems of ecological landscape stability that create a backbone of the ecological infrastructure. The ecological infrastructure will be proposed as a network of balks and dikes along fields and roads with the following requirements: (i) assurance of variability and continuity of flowering of plants on the base of their regular cutting and removal of produced hay to prevent an excessive accumulation of nutrients (eutrophication) and maintenance of permanent grass belts along dikes as a means of protection against erosion and leaching of nutrients from fields; (ii) assurance of variability and continuity of food resources, shelter and nesting conditions - supported by various subsidiary elements occurring in banks of dikes and on farms (trees and shrubs, hay-lofts, wood piles etc.); (iii) assurance of variability and continuity of benefits for holiday-makers through a great number of sceneries, colours, smells and noises from early spring to late autumn;.(iv) such a network should cover at least 5% of the total area of farm.

        The biodiversity is given by numbers of required wild species that occur within a given ecological infrastructure and in a given time interval. As required those species are defined as either suitable for recreation of people or serve as food or provide shelter for wild animals. The following estimations will be performed: (i) definition of differences between required and actual state of an ecological infrastructure; (ii) definition of differences between required and actual state of biodiversity both from the spatial (e.g. on farms or in cadastral territories) and temporal points of view (i.e. in periods that are the most important for the recreation of people and for the support of migration of animals); (iii) improvement of ecological infrastructure and biodiversity (or, possibly, of their too low values as far as the viewpoints of assurance of a temporal and spatial continuity are concerned); (iv) inventories of higher plants species will be performed in individual experimental systems under study and their semi-quantitative representation in some selected stands will be documented in phytocenological surveys; (v) biodiversity of grass-herbal associations as a base for the evaluation of anthropogenous pressures, various methods of use and possible role of given associations from the viewpoint of their stabilizing functions within the landscape; (vi) evaluation of diversity of epigeic fauna and phytophages occurring in individual agrocenoses in dependence on method tillage as an indicator of the current status and sustainability of productional properties; (vii) effects of influences of foreign species (expansion, invasion) on the biodiversity of productional and non-(extra)productional ecosystems with regard to their causes and consequences.

The diversity of crops can evaluated using the following formula: DC = - ∑ pi x lnpi, where DC = diversity of crops, pi = frequency of species (from 0.0 to 1.0). Among cultivated crops, percentages of legumes, which enable estimation of the extent of symbiotic fixation of nitrogen, are mentioned most frequently; this is followed by percentages of oil plants, cereals, meadows and pastures in the total area of agricultural land. Water pollution and eutrophication reduce the biodiversity of many ecosystems and deteriorates the ecological stability. In running waters, the diversity of Hydrobionts is significantly influenced  by technical interventions (hydraulic engineering structures and river training), which result in a reduction of aquatic environment diversity. Associations of Hydrobionts under study will be evaluated on the base of their species abundance, coefficient of diversity (Shannon & Weaver, 1963) and coefficient of equitability (Sheldon, 1969). Basing on an evaluation of ecological valence of zooplankton species (in stagnant waters) and macrozoobenthos (in running waters) we will estimate the index of saprobity (Sládeček et al., 1981), which characterises the degree of organic load of the aquatic ecosystem within a longer time interval. Special attention will be paid to the occurrence and population dynamics of individual species of Hydrobionts because they are indicators of water purity and temperature changes.

Basic physical and chemical properties of water: Basing on results of a physico-chemical analysis of water it is possible to evaluate its quality, degree of anthropogenous load, degree of eutrophication and its suitability for recreational purposes. Using probes with membrane electrodes, water temperature and content of dissolved oxygen will be monitored in selected localities with running and/or stagnant water. The active water reaction (pH) will be measured potentiometrically by a combined electrode. Because of a considerable fluctuation, which is dependent on environmental conditions, it is necessary to estimate these parameters immediately, directly on the sampling site. The quality of water resources will be evaluated on the base of the content of organic substances, which are in the aquatic environment estimated indirectly by means of measurements of oxygen consumption under given (usual) conditions (CHSKMn, CHSKCr and BSK5). The aforementioned chemical parameters will be estimated using standard methods (Horáková et al., 1986).

Content of residues of some specific pollutants: Within the framework of analytical research, contents of some heavy metals (Hg, Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu, Zn and Ni) will be estimated in muscles of market fish (pond rearing) and a model indicator species Leuciscus cephalus (in running waters). Analyses will be carried out using the standard AAS method. The degree of the load of aquatic ecosystems with these specific pollutants will be evaluated on the basis of a comparison of concentrations recorded in different localities and regions with regard to the environmental stress. The health safety and risks of these food resources will be evaluated on the basis of a comparison of data obtained for consumed fish (from pond fisheries and running waters) with valid hygienic limits.

Water regime: The annual dynamics of hydrological regime of aquatic ecosystems (in both stagnant and running waters) belongs to basic factors that influence their primary productive potential, degree of eutrophication, development and biodiversity of all hydrobionts and, finally, the overall level of fish production. To evaluate the effect of a water regime on the aforementioned indicators a statistical evaluation and analysis of basic hydrological data and their long-term trends will be performed in experimental localities under study using records provided by the Czech Hydro-meteorological Institute.

Methodology of the Stage No. 5:

The term vulnerability, which is used throughout this research project, originates in the definition published by Schröterá et al. (2004), which was used in the EU project ATEAM. It is defined as ...’a combination of sensitivity of a given ecosystem service (or a managed ecosystem) to current global climatic changes and their importance for its users. This definition mentions three basic spheres of vulnerability. (1) impact of global climatic changes; (2) sensitivity of the service or the system to effects of the climatic change and (3) adaptation capacity of  the managed ecosystem and the user of the service’. The purpose of studies on vulnerability and its causes in various scenarios of the future development is to prevent the occurrence of losses by means of introduction of suitable adaptation measures. In the stage No. 5 results of stages 1 - 4 and DC 1 - 4 will be integrated and we also try to interpret the vulnerability of ecosystem services (incl. effects on their sustainability) in some managed ecosystems in regions of study (South Moravia and Českomoravská vysočina Highlands)

A successful analysis of vulnerability (Fig. 2) is based on an identification of endangered ecosystem services and the assurance of their sensitivity to the influence of climatic changes. In the first stage of this analysis the sensitivity of indicators of ecosystem services will be performed (Tab. 1) concerning: (i) basic climatic characteristics of the region; (ii) annual, monthly and diurnal variability of climatic conditions and (iii) extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena (e.g. episodes pf draught). Besides individual indicators we plan to select (or newly develop), calibrate and evaluate models of some managed ecosystems (e.g. dynamic models of growth in stages 1 – 3) and ecosystem services (models of soil climate, dynamics of organic matter, bioclimatological suitability of regions and/or potential area of wild species distribution) enabling evaluation of complex interrelationships existing within the ecosystem. This process will run simultaneously with the evaluation of individual indicators. Our university has a long-term experience with the development and practical application of mathematic models of managed ecosystems and presents also  (under conditions of the Czech Republic) an extraordinary portfolio of tools (Tab. 2), which were in many cases directly linked with GIS (ArcInfo v. 9.0) within the framework of earlier projects,. Members of the research team deal also with the development of new simulation tools, e.g. the PERUN-system for the estimation of impacts of climatic changes on some selected field crops (Dubrovský et al., 2004); the GRAM-growth model for the simulation of production of meadows and pastures (Trnka et al.,2006); the ECAMON-ecosystem model for the simulation of spatial distribution of maize leafroll European Corn Borer (Trnka et al., 2006)) that have been already tested under different climatic conditions of the Czech Republic and Austria. After the selection of indicators and ecosystem models we plan – in co-operation with some invited experts (above all from the Institute of Atmosphere Physics of the AS CR) – to prepare scenarios of changes in climatic conditions (incl. socio-economic indicators and data about the use of the territory) for regions under study; these will be based on the 4th report of IPCC, several models of global circulation and results of projects ACCELCEEC and Calim&Ro, in which MUAF researchers participate for the time being. These scenarios will cover the reference periods of 1961-1990 and/or 1961-2000 as well as time horizons 2020, 2050 and 2080 (and, optionally, also some others in dependence on concrete and specific needs of individual ecosystems). Concrete scenarios of climatic changes, GCM models used and socio-economic scenarios will be based on actual data (e.g. on the expected 4th IPCC Report) and for that reason they will be specified in several partial reports. As the indicators of sustainability, ecosystem models and lists and methodologies of development of adaptation measures will be the main subject of this research project, it is not possible to present them in detail here. Examples of indicators, ecosystem models and adaptation measures that will be used within the framework of the presented research project are summarised in Tab. 4.

Together with analyses mentioned above we plan to work on the proposal, testing and determination of adaptation measures and overall adaptation capacity of ecosystem services and managed ecosystems (both on the level of individual regions and the whole territory of the CR). The goal of this stage will be to suggest and test such adaptation that not only will be acceptable from the biological and physical points of view but also technologically feasible and ethically and socio-economically acceptable. These solutions must be also sustainable and should contribute to the stability of managed ecosystems under study. Regarding a long-term character of some adaptation measures (for example time necessary for breeding and selection of new varieties, changes in ecological infrastructure etc.) and a complex character of these problems, it is planned to start with studies on partial adaptation measures since the very beginning of the implementation this project.

Fig. 2: A schematic presentation of work progress in the Stage 5. The basic elements of the methodology are as follows: 1) application of a number of different scenarios of global changes (climate, CO2 concentration, area use and socio-economic predispositions) – left box; 2) identification of the impact of these changes by means of indicators and ecosystem models – grey boxes; 3) identification of possible adaptation measures and of the overall adaptation capacity – white boxes; 4) quantification of vulnerability of ecosystem services and of managed ecosystems on different levels – right shaded box.

Table 4: examples of indicators, ecosystem models and adaptation measures considered within the framework of the project proposal (a definitive selection, verification and application are the subjects of the research project). Numbers behind ecosystem models identify the managed ecosystems.

The research team is fully aware of the fact that biological and physical aspects  or – in an applied concept – the biological and technological sustainability study is (besides social and economical ones) only one of possible dimensions of sustainability. However, from the viewpoint of the landscape and its managed ecosystems, this dimension is crucial. A successful solution of goals of this research project, in which we emphasize the approach to the cultural landscape as a provider of ecosystem services, is probably the only way to assure its sustainability.

Note: All literature and references to all ecosystem models are available by at the workplace of the applicant and on the Internet address: www.mendelu.cz/~opr/vz.htm